"December Program Update' HERE'S SOME DATA! Letter to Contractors

Below is the letter I sent to contractors about results tracking, and eventually having a way of ranking them based upon their ability to make accurate energy savings projections:

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ted Kidd <tedkidd@eesny.com>
Date: Wed, Dec 12, 2012 at 8:38 PM
Subject: December Contractor Update - Merry Christmas!
To: 

Dear Contractors,

Below are; Some metrics, Competing for results, and a much better way of managing data:

Some of you may be aware that last spring I requested and received a large amount of data under the Freedom of Information Act from NYSERDA regarding your HPwES projects.  

You also may know that I feel this program needs to move toward a new competitive metric - one of published ability to deliver savings projected.  This will do for our industry what MPG ratings did to the auto industry, it will create incentive to excel around a metric that benefits the consumer and adds credibility to our promises.  It will allow us to market based upon truth and accountability, not smoke, mirrors and hope.  Sell to reason, not fickle emotion.  

A program that can deliver TRUTH is unique in today's marketplace.  This could elevate our profession immeasurably! 
Tracking before and after energy would be ideal but right now there is an access problem to energy consumption data "after" improvements.  Until we can solve this, do we have anything that might indicate what results to expect by contractor?  Well, we do have access to "reported energy use before" and "modeled energy use before".  

Certainly someone who uses 1000 therms who has a model showing they use 2000 therms will save 40% is not likely to see 800 therms savings.  

So we can rank ability to accurately model energy consumption pre-improvement with the expectation it will correlate to accuracy of savings projections?  Highly likely.   And seeing these numbers helps contractors understand how accurate their modeling is.   

Do No Harm.  To roll out a ranking or registry without contractor understanding of what is coming is likely to cause harm, so providing this interim step information in a format indicating what will eventually be public information provides opportunity to adjust behavior and policies ahead of time.  Forewarned is forearmed. 

Below is a representation of the data available, and an idea of what a realization ranking might look like.  Those closest to the line have the models that most closely represent consumption of the homes they audit, and those further to the left tend to overstate consumption: (might need Chrome to view)

There is a lot that can be done here, for example these numbers could be run quarterly to show who is improving and who is sliding.  You can't manage what you don't measure, and this should be managed. Nick Taylor is working on making these numbers so people can dig in and understand how to improve results.  You can play with the charts here: http://bit.ly/NickTaylorsCharts

This Christmas I will be receiving a new data set, and a lot of additional information, which I will share with anyone interested.  

I'm also happy to discuss what happens to the work once you commit to tracking results.  (HINT: When you have 2 tests coming up, one you automatically pass just for showing up and the other one is graded, which do you study hardest for?)

Next year NY HPwES will be transitioning from CSG's citrix to Energy Savvy, which looks like a step in the right direction! Maybe NYSERDA will consider tying things to Salesforce and Hubspot.  Things may look discouraging now, but they're poised to get better!  I'd love to hear from those who do not plan to renew their Accreditation, that might be a mistake.  
Sincerely,

Ted Kidd
(585) 205-8674 Direct 
Energy Efficiency Specialists
EES Blog

Published Realization Rates - Let's take the "blind buy" out of home performance.

P.s.:  Thank you to those who've sent words of encouragement and appreciation.  And as always, to those who wish to be removed from this list please let me know.   

Good faith attempts to remove clearly bad data were made.  The analysis was performed by an independent 3rd party with absolutely no connection or bias toward any NY contractors or the program.  Anyone having issue with accuracy of the data please contact NYSERDA and CSG.  

Are You Pro-Active or Re-Active?

Energy Efficiency doesn't mean turning back the thermostat...

...it means Keeping The Heat in the House!

We used to live in really leaky, poorly insulated homes with huge, high output equipment.  The equipment had only one speed, full.   We had a strategy for saving energy - run the equipment as little as possible. 

This was a good strategy.  Heat quickly left the house, so the less you heated the less that left.  Also, over sized single output equipment is able to run more efficiently if it has an opportunity to run for a while. That opportunity occurred when it had to heat the house way up. 

The new strategy is keep the equipment running, matching the building loss, and allowing modern modulating equipment to run at optimum efficiency ALL THE TIME.   


Technology has provided equipment that can modulate output to match the losses or load on the house like you modulate the burner on your stove.   


This new technology requires a new strategy for saving energy.  This new paradigm is the polar opposite of the old strategy, which means it's counter-intuitive, contradicting long held beliefs.  Instead of full off or full on, the equipment gently adjusts up or down to match the need.  


Also, we no longer heat the neighborhood.  We have tighter, better insulated homes.  So lowering temperature doesn't save much, if anything, because it's not cutting losses the way it used to.  In fact, now it may cost energy as the equipment has to go to full throttle for recovery thereby reducing condensing efficiencies. 


Equipment eventually wears out.  Unfortunately most people are not pro-active when it comes to equipment replacement.  Good design and decisions are not accomplished at 2 am on the coldest night of the year when the furnace finally quits for good. 


HOW CAN YOU BE PROACTIVE?  First Step - get your energy history.  

Our houses require a certain amount of heat which usually doesn't vary much from year to year (unless weatherization occurs). There are a number of ways to determine annual gas usage:

1. Call gas company and ask.
2. Login to your account and get usage history. (Click HERE for RGE)
3. Look at current meter read, then look at year ago meter read from a bill and subtract.
4. Go to the chart in a recent bill and look at each month.  With a straight edge roughly determine the usage and write it down.  Add 12 months usage together.

If you have problems calculating you annual usage feel free to send me your bills and I will try to help.

Next Step:  Get a Comprehensive Home Assessment.

If you'd like to understand your savings opportunity before hand, All you need to know is your heating fuel type, annual amount used, and your homes square footage.  

If you don't know your annual consumption but you do know your annual cost, here's a very basic rule of thumb for determining your energy savings opportunity and if we should schedule a free energy visit.  Based upon past experience:

• I REALLY WANT TO SEE YOU if you heat with Natural Gas and spend more than $1.00 per square foot per year.  (Oil, Propane, or Electric the number is roughly double)
• I AM HAPPY TO SEE YOU if you spend $.50 to $1.00
• I WILL COME TO SEE YOU if you spend less than $.50, but you are either freezing or your house is already fairly efficient.  I hope there are comfort or durability issues you want to address.  Please don't expect miracles when it comes to saving money on energy.

Most people’s single largest energy expense is heating their homes, this also means this is most peoples biggest opportunity for savings.  

And Remember - Equipment that runs gently and continuously is like your car on the highway, running lots of miles with very little fuel.   In the end, every house is different.   You can't know what really saves unless you track behavior and savings. 

Applying for your FREE (or Low Cost) Energy Audit

Ok, so you've taken the 3 step test or some other way decided a free audit is worth the effort.  Your energy opportunity is appealing, your energy cost is higher than you'd like, comfort could be improved, and/or there is some other issue you would like to address...

Good news!  The application is amazingly simple too!  Assuming you got your energy history from the Opportunity MEASUREMENT STEP, you just have a one page application to complete.

CLICK HERE for the Home Performance Free or Reduced Cost Audit Application and select either "APPLY ONLINE" or "DOWNLOAD APPLICATION".

*****   If you would like us to automatically contact you to schedule the audit once you get approval, check the contractor check box and put CSG@EESNY.COM on the e-mail line at the bottom.

This is what the form looks like (May 2012):

Again, CLICK HERE for the Audit Application. 

*****   If you would like us to automatically contact you to schedule the audit once you get approval, check the contractor check box and put CSG@EESNY.COM  on the e-mail line at the bottom.

Next, scan and send the application to HPwES-Audit@csgrp.com.  The audit approval office really has their act together, you'll hear back from them usually within 2-3 days.

FREE or LOW COST?  WHAT'S THIS COST? - It depends upon your family income.  In MONROE COUNTY if your income is below $137,400 the audit is free. 

And if you include  CSG@EESNY.COM on the contractor line, I'll get notified too.  You can simply wait for my phone call.



If you need help, feel free to get in touch with me.

How High ARE My Energy Bills? - A simple measurement tool

START HERE

1. GET ONE YEAR ENERGY HISTORY - it's easy if you have a cheat sheet.  CLICK HERE to see screen shots of the steps to getting energy history at RGE.COM or NYSEG
2. STEP ON AN ENERGY SCALE - it's just 2 numbers and clicking a button if you have energy history. 
3. DECIDE IF FURTHER EFFORT IS WARRANTED - it's easy.  Decide if your home has a big enough savings opportunity to warrant applying for the free audit program.  (not really free, you've already paid for it out of RPS and SBC charges on your energy bill.  So, you are paying for an audit whether you take advantage of it or not).  

DONE!  THAT'S IT!  EASY!

Less than 15 minutes, right?  

NEXT:  

If you feel further effort IS warranted, apply for an audit, which may take another 15 minutes.  
CLICK HERE:  It's a one page application.  

(I am always looking for ways to simplify and clarify the information I provide.  If you have comments or suggestions, please "Post a Comment" at the bottom or send me a note. ) 

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Not clear? Visualize what the 3 step measurement process looks like:

STEP 1.  GET ONE YEAR ENERGY HISTORY.  Here's what mine looks like:

(Click on image to shuttle quickly through images)

You can add these number by hand, or cut and paste to Excel to come up with annual consumption.  (You can also cut and paste this to the email that you attach your free audit application to, as they want documentation of energy use.) 

You'll also need your home's square footage.  IF you don't know this number you can find it on ZILLOW

STEP 2.  STEP ON SCALE:  Take your annual consumption and square footage and enter into the ENERGY SCALE:

Here you see the annual usage and square footage entered,

Next click Calculate and....

YOUR Opportunity will
POP UP

STEP 3.  SEE WHAT YOUR OPPORTUNITY MEANS: Below is how I've classified the various pop-ups:

Again, NEXT:  If you feel further effort IS warranted, apply for an audit, which may take another 15 minutes.   It's a one page application.  

Ever wonder; "How much am I wasting UNNECESSARILY and WHERE IS IT GOING?"  

STEP 4.  SIGN UP FOR FREE ENERGY AUDIT PROGRAM - it's easy.   It's a one page application.  

If you feel further effort IS warranted, that your house has attractive opportunity for energy savings or comfort improvement, the next small bite is apply for an audit, which may take another 15 minutes:

1. SIGN UP FOR FREE ENERGY AUDIT PROGRAM - it's easy.   It's a one page application.  Now you have your energy history and know your home has opportunity that meets your cost effectiveness criteria.  Download the PDF and it's "fillable".  

DONE!  Now you have claimed your $250-$400 energy audit.  Actually, reclaimed RPS and SBC charges you've paid in to the system on your utility bill.  

STEP 5.

NEXT BLOG:  FINANCING PROGRAMS THAT USE ENERGY SAVINGS TO PAY FOR IMPROVEMENTS!  On-Bill:  So good it sounds too good to be true!  

Line up the financing.  It's a good idea to get this step started now.  You have nothing to lose and understanding your options here will be really important later.  (Many people find putting this off leads to disappointment and back-tracking.)

The audit opens the door for additional incentives available for funding repairs and improvements through the NY Home Performance with Energy Star program.  Please contact me if you have any questions!

NO MORE CHASING SIR - Dear Contractors, Now We Can Build!!

Group E-mail sent 5/3/2012 - With SIR basically gone, we can re-focus on accuracy, and build a program that delivers on promise:

Dear Contractors,

I'm going to talk about 4 things:  

1. The recent positive program changes. 
2. Many haven't fully grasped the changes - some ideas to help with that. 
3. How this change allows us to get back to focusing on continuously improving the accuracy of our modelling.
4. Finally, modeled to actual energy consumption ratio is in the area of 1.369324, and this needs to get fixed quickly.  

1. Program Changes - SIR goes away (for the most part)  -  No kidding, no more chasing SIR!!!  

Effective April 1 a change occurred that I think people don't fully grasp.  (Continuous changes to the program had left a lot of people overwhelmed and confused, including me).   Pre-approved Measures no longer require SIR -or- TRC for 10% hemi or 50% aHPwES.  Cost effectiveness of measures is pre-determined, doesn't matter what SIR you get.  

I've heard a lot of complaints about models having no resemblance to the home when they finally get approved, these model contortion efforts can stop.  Now that SIR and TRC are no longer required for pre-approved measures, we can now run everyone through the program for SOME incentive, which is fantastic! 

Even more fantastic - we can run 50/50 (aHPwES) without SIR (something I've never seen before).

And even the loans are not completely off the table for sub 1.01 jobs.  You can "buy down" the loan which means you can borrow up to the project cost TRC and SIR would justify.  Basically they will loan based upon project energy savings.  In other words, if that $10,000 project would make the bar at $6,000, you can borrow that amount and only need to find $4,000 from other sources.    

2.  Getting our heads around this change - Not many attended the webinar, and even if you did the true meaning of recent changes are such a serious easing of restrictions that they may not be very clear.  If it's not clear to you, it's probably not clear to your sales force.  

So how do we convey this to the sales force?

DISCUSS PROGRAM FINANCING.

Some are saying "Just don't do it".  I think if clients are looking for financing, direct them to it but encourage/require completion of your standard financing application also.  Make sure they understand the financing is challenging, and they may not get the whole amount financed through the program.  And remember:  Customers have the option to “buy down” the project cost so that the financed amount meets the cost effectiveness criteria.

DISCUSS ON-BILL.

We lobbied hard for this, and it's a great program.  Again, have your standard financing paperwork.  Explain that clients can buy down the total cost of the job by what the energy savings pays for, so they will only have to get outside financing for the difference. 

This means the additional net monthly cost of improvements to homeowners will only be the monthly cost of the amount not financed through on-bill.  On Bill requires very true TREAT, so this should help provide confidence to clients until we get to Published Realization Rates. 

Now that NYSERDA has removed SIR and TRC hurdles for a significant amount of work, accurate modeling is not an impediment to getting incentives.  Please re-focus on accurate modelling instead of "tweaking to get approval" so when results tracking does occur, you don't put yourself and the program in a difficult spot.  

Please everyone, begin rigorously truing your models, or Realization Rates will continue to deviate from reality.  $1 promised = 63 cents saved does not engender confidence.  When results tracking by contractor becomes public, companies who are not diligent with their modelling run the risk of looking incompetent or worse, fraudulent.  Conversely, those with good realization will have the most powerful sales tool imaginable.

REVIEW THE 3/30 WEBINAR by clicking here: No more chasing SIR!!!

3.  Improve Modelling Accuracy - This requires truing to actual consumption.  

For over a year we've been truing our models.  Not chasing SIR because we see transparency of realization around the corner, and we perceive eventual competitive advantage opportunity here.  That meant very very few 1.01 SIR opportunities.  These program changes means we can finally sell jobs!  

This change means the only reason a contractor might want to game TREAT is to over promise savings to make improvements "payback" better.  I don't think that's something any of us wants to risk.  Leave that for "guy with van, dog, and six pack."  ON BILL has such rigorous modelling requirements I don't think significant gaming can occur.  So pressure on accurate modeling is again going in the right direction!!!

4.  Fix Accuracy of "Promise" - SOME DATA YOU SHOULD ALL BE AWARE OF:

TRUING NOT REQUIRED.  Since the program never required truing, it's something many don't know how to do.  It's extra work.  (PSD has videos showing how to do it.)  Unfortunately, initial models typically grossly overstate consumption.  Overstate consumption and you overstate savings.  So everybody needs to learn to TRUE UP.

From data on completed jobs post GJGNY audit, it appears the models overstate reported consumption by about 36.9324%.  This would lead to the conclusion that even if improvements are accurately modeled, and energy savings % is correct, actual energy & dollar saving will be pretty dramatically overstated.  Truing was optional, that eventually will not be the case.  May as well start truing now for reasons that I hope to make apparent.  

I have calculated consumption overstatement by contractor as well.  If someone else doesn't start ranking contractors using these numbers, I will.  Numbers will be from here forward, not looking back.  SIR cliff made the playing field incredibly unfair, but as of April 1, 2012 that's gone.  From here forward NYSERDA has dramatically fixed the turf, so bad numbers are not justifiable.  

Think of this:  When we can prove $1 promised = $1 saved, selling big jobs becomes child's play.  Winning jobs away from the non- HPwES low bidder will be easy.  Now is the time to correct our modelling so we can point to policy as cause for inaccurate promise during this small window of time, rather than our practices, ethics or cultures.

Again, your audit's modeled and reported energy consumption are publicly available data.  If someone else doesn't start ranking contractors using these numbers, I will.  Eventually I will get Realization Rates as well, the long term goal is to track Realization.  

So accuracy may be a metric you want to think about from a competitive advantage/disadvantage perspective henceforth.  

Cara at CSG added reported consumption to page two of the approval, which makes truing much easier.  She has also added square footage, which allows us to quickly understand the opportunity before the audit.    

Results tracking is coming.  We have time to prepare if we start now.  Please start truing up your models.  Thank you for your time!

Ted Kidd

Energy Efficiency Specialists

EES Blog

(585) 205-8674 Direct

If TRANSPARENCY is the answer and FEAR is the barrier, how do we help put fear aside?  ~Ted Kidd, 2012

TREAT Videos at PSD

(Bryan, maybe someone could update the most recent eligible measures list to reflect the changes.  Most recent one on contractor portal is 1/1/12, still states projects must have sir greater than 1.)

****  Note - in looking at the data - there are a fair number of projects that project annual energy savings GREATER than the total annual consumption reported by the customer.   You would think the SIR of these projects would be tend to be predominantly in the 1.01 area, but this appears not to be true.  Possibly due to GeoThermal installs?

How True Are YOUR Models?

Ever wonder how accurate your energy savings projections are?



Like to know what level of confidence you (and your clients) should have in YOUR energy audit software savings projections?

Do you believe in the adage:  Garbage In, Garbage Out?

I have 10+ years worth of energy use, on a spreadsheet.  Doesn't everyone keep such a thing?

You mean everyone is not obsessive compulsive about their fuel use?  Really, you don't have a spreadsheet like this for all their vehicles?  You don't want to know your fuel cost per mile?




OK, I get it.   Clients aren't calling contractors with "Hey, you said I'd save $700 and I only saved $250!!"   People simply are not tracking results.  Nobody cares.

Rather, I think most everyone DOES care (popularity of sites like Fuelly proves people want to roll with this, they just don't want to invent the WHEEL to do it!).  The issue is just not enough to figure out how to do it on their own. 

Gathering energy data is so onerous, bills are so frustrating and confusing, very few care enough to suffer through the effort.  It's as unpleasant as doing taxes with no guaranteed reward, no clear incentive.  Guess it's like hiking.  Sure I like to hike, but I'm not interested in climbing Everest.  Way too much work for a hard to imagine reward at best, non-existent reward at worst.

Well, I wanted to know.  I worried about selling a bunch of hooey, so I kept track.


And for larger projects, the savings is supposed to carry a fair amount of the improvement cost, so failure could be a fair harm to people.  I felt a need for some due diligence.  I even put some time into BLOGGING about projects.


WHAT I LEARNED FROM TRACKING...

Some of what I learned - I learned that if you build an accurate model, true it to actual energy use, put some thought into good, interconnected energy design, and insured the work was done diligently, actual savings exceeded model projections.


SO, WHERE CAN THIS GO WRONG?  

Model Accuracy, Truing Energy Use, Improvement Design, Implementation Diligence, Energy Cost, any place there is a variable that an inaccurate metric is either required ($1.60 therm for natural gas, really!?), or can accidentally be overlooked (If truing is not required, and you are in a hurry to get the work out...), or you need to hit some arbitrary SAVINGS RATIO to have the job qualify for incentives, or it won't sell and you've done 15 hours of work for no compensation... (SIR Cliff).



...If you've made it this far and would like me to continue, please leave a comment or question.

See SIR opportunity BEFORE the AUDIT!

So, You've got an Audit approval letter!  (If not, HERE's an application form)



Client heats with Natural Gas, So you know there's probably less opportunity than an oil or propane client.  Possible SIR challenges.  Like to know how big the cost effective savings opportunity is BEFORE THE AUDIT?

Wanna rough idea if there will be SIR opportunity before you get to the house?  

I have a rough calculator for you HERE.

Take your approval letter, go to page 2 which has annual therms and square feet.  Enter those numbers in the boxes, click Calculate, and if the box is any color other than red, be fairly confident you do not have a program opportunity.

This is what it looks like:

DATA FROM APPROVAL LETTER:


This shows the annual therm consumption and square footage, which you enter in the calculator shown in the NEXT image.

Here you see the annual usage and square footage entered,



next click Calculate and....

Voila, 

Great Opportunity:

This house has a pretty good energy opportunity even on super cheap Natural Gas.

Don't walk to this audit, drop everything and run because with these rare numbers it is very likely you have a lot of decent work that will be program eligible.


Unfortunately, it is much more common to run into homes like the next one:

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THIS Home's opportunity is pretty good from a comfort and energy perspective, but you won't find SIR here...

1600 sf/1000 therms.  

Not that these homes don't have significant savings opportunities, you'll just find efforts to be comprehensive getting parsed to death by SIR and TRC problems.  

Want to bring up the program here?  PROCEED WITH CAUTION!  Even if you and your sales people aren't completely confused, the client will be.  

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On the other end of the scale are folks with pretty low usage who want to do more.  Unfortunately there is no encouragement for these folks in the program, because incentive is SIR Cliff instead of Energy Savings based, you don't have a snowballs chance of getting work through:  

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WHAT DO THE POP-UPS MEAN?  Below is how I've classified the various pop-ups:

Again, this is a pre-audit tool that people can use to understand what neighborhood their opportunity is in, get an understanding of what the audit results are likely to tell them, and basically to set very general expectations.  

It will also help disqualify people who are living in decent homes who want Buffet style return on investment from energy efficiency work.