Friday, February 24, 2012

Conversations with Bryan, 2/24/12 BEGINNING

On Fri, Feb 24, 2012 at 11:58 AM, Ted Kidd <> wrote:
Hi Bryan,

Are my prognostications of the last year and a half coming to fruition?  It breaks my heart, foundationally this is such a fantastic program and On-Bill could have made it amazing.   The tremendous goodwill value built over 10 years seems to be quickly depleting.  The way things are now we see brute force corrections which then have some fairly catastrophic unintended consequences that also require ever more extreme brute force corrections and all of it catastrophically impacts confidence.  

Wouldn't it be nice if brute force corrections were unnecessary, if this program were naturally self-correcting?  Wouldn't it be nice if the consumers and contractors lined up to participate?  Wouldn't it be nice if everyone could have confidence that the savings modeled would hold up?  Wouldn't it be nice if every contractor wanted to run every job through the program?  Wouldn't it be nice if the cost of administering each job was cut by a factor of 4 and if incentives were based upon energy saved? 

I firmly believe it is possible.  But first it requires a level of accountability that will only occur when the program reorients around transparency of results. This is a tremendous opportunity for NYSERDA.  

Results have to be the natural counterbalance.  TREAT is a fantastic tool.  Since 2008 I've repeatedly said TREAT is the KEY, and I still believe that.  I've tracked my results and having them is very meaningful as it provides confidence and credibility, but getting them is very onerous.  I want you to track them for me, to share the results with me and with the world.  I want them to prove my successes and help me correct and avoid mistakes.  Mostly I want pressure on results, which can't happen if nobody knows the results.  

I suspect all the contractors would like to know how accurate their projections turn out to be (have any asked?).  If given fair warning, data, and time to adjust, they too will come to see that they want their results shared.  Think of what an amazing service this would provide to contractors and consumers.   A very compelling measure of confidence and truth, and removal of a huge barrier to action by homeowners - the barrier of uncertainty.  

Once contractors can see that their results can be a marketing tool or an anchor, they will focus on providing the best results possible and all your current nightmares are solved.  New contractors will pay their first born to get into the program and all jobs will be self-approving.  Existing contractors will focus on quality over short term profitability when the two conflict.   It's so much easier to sell truth than to sell hype.  

Technological advances make results transparency a forgone conclusion.  If NYSERDA is not involved in bringing it you won't have control over how the results are presented.  That has me very worried, I can't imagine it doesn't worry you.  

If you are beginning to see some TREAT complaints from contractors this re-alignment should correct that too, I have some short term ideas for the interim.
Ted Kidd


SUMMARY of this Post:   TREAT works, Delivering savings on promise IS possible, We need to know our results and use REALIZATION RATE as the competitive metric, SIR has to go away and incentive based upon savings needs to take its place. 

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